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IMF sees steady global growth in 2026 as AI boom offsets trade headwinds

Plus: Scaling AI value beyond pilot phase purgatory

Author

Hafizur Rahman
January 19, 2026

In partnership with

Today's Newsletter Highlights:

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IMF sees steady global growth in 2026 as AI boom offsets trade headwinds

The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of about 3.3% in 2026, slightly higher than its October 2025 estimate. This follows a similar 3.3% estimated growth for 2025, which was also revised up

Key Points :

  • Growth is expected to ease to around 3.2% in 2027.

  • 🤖 AI Investment as a Key Driver

  • AI Boom Boosts Growth:

  • Investing heavily in artificial intelligence is boosting this positive outlook. Key areas include data centres, high-performance chips, and infrastructure. These investments are boosting economic activity. This is happening mainly in the United States, but also in Europe and parts of Asia.

  • U.S. Growth:

  • U.S. GDP is forecast to grow by about 2.4% in 2026, higher than earlier estimates, mainly due to AI-related spending.

  • Other Economies:

  • Spain’s 2026 forecast is upgraded to about 2.3%, while the U.K. remains near 1.3%. China's growth is expected to hit about 4.5%. This will be helped by lower tariffs and more varied exports.

  • 🛠 Trade and Policy Factors

  • Trade Headwinds Easier Than Expected:

  • The IMF says that adapting to U.S. tariff pressures is helping growth. This includes changes in supply chains and new trade deals. Effective tariff rates in the U.S. have fallen from their peak, easing some global headwinds.

  • Trade Policy Risks Remain:

  • Even with the easing, future trade policy uncertainties could still create volatility. This includes court rulings on tariff authority and changes in legislation.

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The core theme is how AI projects too often stall after pilot or prototype stages instead of becoming operational and delivering measurable business benefits.

Experimentation with generative AI is widespread, but industrializing those tools (governance, security, integration) remains difficult.

Key points :

  • IBM — as one example — is promoting a platform-centric consulting model that combines advisory expertise with pre-built software assets to help organizations assemble scalable, governed AI platforms rather than building bespoke solutions from scratch.

  • Supporting multi-cloud and hybrid infrastructure is emphasized so companies don’t have to rip out existing investments to scale AI.

  • The shift in focus is from isolated models/tools toward cohesive ecosystems that connect AI with workflow, data governance, and measurable ROI.

  • Why AI Gets Stuck in “Pilot Purgatory”

  • Multiple sources show a consistent picture of bottlenecks:

  • 🔹 Organizational and Strategic Factors

  • Many pilots succeed technically but lack alignment to strategic business goals or ROI metrics, making it hard to justify scaling.

  • Executive sponsorship and a clear business case are often missing — projects can be impressions without business impact.

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Moxie Marlinspike has a privacy-conscious alternative to ChatGPT

Confer is a new AI assistant by Moxie Marlinspike, the founder of Signal Messenger. It's built as an alternative to ChatGPT, focusing on strong privacy.

Key Points :

  • End-to-end protection Messages between you and the AI are encrypted with WebAuthn passkeys. This means only you can easily read them.

  • Secure inference processing, also known as trusted execution, runs queries in a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE). It uses remote attestation for added security. This technique makes sure the system runs real code. So, even server operators can’t see your inputs or responses.

  • Open-weight models only The models used are open-weight. This means they are transparent and can be audited, unlike proprietary black boxes.

  • What that means for you

  • No data harvesting for training or ads. Confer is different from typical AI services. It keeps your chat data private, so the host can't access it.

  • Your data won’t be used for targeted ads. This addresses worries as some AI platforms look into ad models.

  • Remote attestation boosts trust. It lets you check that the service is running the promised privacy-preserving code.

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